March 18, 2026
As military operations against Iran continue to disrupt the world’s most critical oil
shipping lane, Americans are watching prices at the pump climb at a pace not seen
since the early days of Russia’s war on Ukraine. The national average for a gallon of
regular unleaded has risen from roughly $2.98 before the conflict to over $3.50 — a
jump of more than 20% — and analysts warn that prices could push toward $4 or
higher if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
For many Americans, the spike raises an obvious question: if the U.S. barely
depends on Middle Eastern oil, why is it paying a Middle Eastern price?
What the Data Actually Shows
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. imported
just 0.5 million barrels per day from Persian Gulf nations in 2024 — roughly 7% of
total crude imports and only 2% of overall U.S. petroleum consumption. By the first
quarter of 2025, that share had edged up to just 2.5%, a fraction compared to China
(37.7%) and India (14.7%), the countries most reliant on Hormuz-routed oil.
Globally, around 20 million barrels of oil flow through the strait every day —
roughly 20% of worldwide petroleum consumption and more than a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. The overwhelming majority, approximately 84%, is bound for Asian markets. A closure of the strait is not primarily an American energy problem. It is an Asian one.
So Why Are Americans Paying More?
The answer is rooted in how oil markets work. Crude oil is a globally priced
commodity. When a major supply disruption removes roughly one-fifth of the
world’s supply from the market — as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz
has done — benchmark prices rise for everyone, regardless of where their barrels
originate. Nearly half the cost of a gallon of gasoline is determined by the global
price of crude oil.
The U.S. has been a net exporter of total petroleum products since 2020, and crude
oil exports reached 4 million barrels per day in 2025. But being a net exporter of
petroleum products does not insulate American drivers from global price shocks.
The U.S. still imports approximately 6.2 million barrels of crude per day — largely
because many domestic refineries were built decades ago to process heavier
foreign crude that American shale wells don’t produce. Rebuilding those refineries
to use domestic supply would take years and billions of dollars.
President Trump has defended the higher prices as “a very small price to pay for
U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace,” and has noted that the U.S., as the world’s top
oil producer, benefits when prices rise. Critics counter that the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve — the nation’s emergency buffer — was not refilled ahead of the conflict,
leaving the economy more exposed to exactly this type of supply shock.
The Price Gouging Question
The gap between American oil dependency on the strait and the size of the price
spike has led some observers to raise concerns about corporate price-gouging. The
argument is intuitive: if only 2% of U.S. petroleum passes through Hormuz, why
should prices jump 20%? However, economists are quick to note that no formal finding of price-gouging has been established. The price increases are consistent with how a globally integrated oil market responds to a supply shock of this magnitude — even nations far from the disruption feel the ripple.
That said, the question of whether American energy companies are capturing
outsized profits during the crisis is legitimate and worth scrutiny. Past energy
crises have shown that while market dynamics explain much of the price
movement, corporate pricing decisions can amplify it.
The Bottom Line
The 2% figure is real, verified by EIA data, and important context for
understanding American energy exposure. But it does not explain away higher gas
prices — it explains why those prices feel unfair. In a globally connected oil market,
there is no such thing as purely domestic pricing. The Strait of Hormuz matters to
American wallets not because of what flows from it to us, but because of what flows
from it to the world.